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Blackjack Game Odds
Understanding the odds will play a large role in becoming a successful player at the game of Blackjack. It is one of the only games that is beatable, meaning that by acquiring the right skills, a player can swing the advantage into his or her favor.
This is possible for a couple of reasons:
A critical first step is learning how to play Blackjack using basic strategy. Anyone can do this with a little practice. By learning to play Blackjack using perfect basic strategy, you will already reduce the casino's edge to a mere 0.80% - the second lowest among all table games - and far better than the odds found at the Roulette tables and most slot machines.
Blackjack is a dependent variable game, meaning that as each card is dealt from the deck(s), the odds of any remaining card - like an Ace or 10 - coming up next is constantly changing. If you're playing a single deck game, before any cards have been dealt, you know that the odds of any Ace being dealt are 4 out of 52. If the first two cards dealt are both Aces, then there is only a 2 out of 50 (or 1 in 25) chance that the next card will be another Ace. Over time, experts have used computer simulations to determine that high cards like Aces and Tens are beneficial to the player, and conversely small cards are good for the dealer. If you are able to keep track of which cards have left the deck, you would obviously stand a better chance at knowing which cards remain, hence which ones are most likely to be dealt on the very next draw. This is where the house edge is nullified, and the player begins to build a small, yet sizable edge over the house. Such is the advantage of becoming a skilled blackjack player.
Adjustments in Strategy
Once you have learned basic strategy, and then how to track the
count while playing, the next step is to vary your playing strategy
to account for the current game odds at any given moment. If you
know that the deck is loaded with face cards, you might not want
to hit that 12 against the dealer's up card of 10, knowing that
their is an increased likelihood that you will bust. If the deck
has lots of tens, you may decide to risk doubling on 11 against
a dealer's Ace, even though basic strategy says not to. It is
small modifications in play that will cut into the house's edge
and put those percentage points on your side.
Other variations in play include changing your betting level. If the odds favor the player, bet bigger. If they favor the dealer, bet smaller. This is common knowledge, but mastering the art of knowing when and how to bet is a key factor in becoming a skilled player. Something to keep in mind is that while adjusting your bets according to the odds at any given time, do so in a reasonable manner. This means avoiding the rapid escalation of bets when the odds shift into your favor. Regardless of whether you're playing at the Trump Plaza in AC, or at your favorite online casino, chances are that if you jump from $10 a hand to $100 a hand, someone will notice. Pit personnel are trained to watch out for exactly this sort of thing, so you will need to disguise your betting. If the odds are in your favor and you win a hand, double your next bet, or raise it by one unit. This is a very natural betting pattern that any player might use, and much less likely to draw unwanted attention. I will also note that many online casinos use software whose mathematical algorithms are programmed to detect wild swings in betting. So, since there is no pit boss to give you the boot at your own computer, the odds of many blackjack games at online casinos do not favor the player when making a large escalation in bet from one hand to the next. Stick with a similar raising strategy to what you'd use at a land casino, and you will be better off.
Event Frequency
Event Odds (% of hands)
Player win 44%
Dealer win 48%
Tie (push) 8%
Player Blackjack 5%
Dealer Blackjack 5%
Dealer Blackjack with
Ace showing 32%
Player bust on 16 61%
Player bust on 15 59%
Player bust on 14 56%
Player bust on 13 52%
Player bust on 12 48%
Another important factor in blackjack mastery is knowing how often certain events occur. Maybe you've wondered how often blackjacks come up, or what the win/loss/tie breakdown is between players and the house. On average, a player will win 44% of the time, the dealer 48% and 8% of hands will result in a tie. With these odds, you might logically deduce that a player will lose more money than he or she will win. However, you must also take into account the built-in player advantages that Blackjack offers like doubling down, splitting, and the fact that blackjack pays out at 3 to 2. While you will likely end up losing more hands than you win, you should just about break even monetarily, because you win more when you do win. If you win a double down, you get twice what you would expect than for winning only one hand, but it still counts as a single win for the player. Also, if the dealer gets a blackjack, you lose only your initial bet, instead of 1 1/2 times the bet, which is what a player wins by getting a Blackjack.
The chart above shows us that both the player and the dealer can expect a blackjack at a rate of 1 out of every 20 hands, or 5% of the time. An important thing to remember is that when a dealer shows an Ace, odds are that he or she will make a blackjack 32% of the time, meaning there won't be one the other 68% of the time. If the dealer has an Ace showing, you will be asked if you would like to take the Insurance bet, which pays 2 to 1. Since the dealer will not have a blackjack 68% of the time, that's about how often you can expect to lose this bet, thus reinforcing why basic strategy says never to take the insurance bet. So when should you take the insurance bet? Only when you're an expert card counter, and the plus count is sky high, letting you know that the odds are actually in favor of the dealer having a ten card under that Ace. Even then, it is still a risky proposition, so, as wise guys say: "fuhgeddaboudit."
House Rules' effect on Odds
Rule Effect on Player
Dealer wins ties -9.00%
Eight Decks -0.55%
Six Decks -0.52%
Four Decks -0.48%
Two Decks -0.31%
Double only on 10, 11 -0.26%
Dealer hits soft 17s -0.20%
No dealer hole card -0.11%
No resplitting pairs -0.03%
Late Surrender +0.02%
Double after splits +0.14%
Double on 3 or more cards +0.24%
Resplit Aces +0.32%
Early Surrender +0.62%
If you've played Blackjack in more than one location, odds are the rules of the game had slight variations. Las Vegas Strip rules are different from Downtown Vegas rules which are different from Atlantic City rules which are different from Gulf Coast Mississippi rules and so on. So why is there no international standard for Blackjack table rules? Basically, casinos like to be able to make small changes in their games to either attract or detract certain types of players. While probably more than half of the tourists and other recreational players only bother to look or inquire about a game's rules as far as the table minimum, smart players know that particular rules have direct relationships on the player's edge. Certain rules impact the edge favorably for players, others add to the house advantage. Looking for a game that has good rules is another important factor in improving your odds.
The chart shows us what percentage (positive or negative) different rule variations commonly found at today's casinos will have on a player. Starting at the top, definitely avoid all games where the dealer wins ties. This gives the house a big edge. Next, the lower the number of decks being used, the better the odds for players. Regardless of whether you're playing basic strategy, counting cards, or just guessing, single and double deck games give you better odds of winning. When you play multiple deck games dealt from a shoe, a blank card (usually colored red or yellow) will be inserted towards the end of the stack. All cards up to this card will be dealt during the game. Once the card is reached, it is time to shuffle. Depending on where the card is placed, the odds will improve or decrease for players. This is known as "penetration." Closer to the end of the stack (deeper penetration) is good for players because more cards will come out of the shoe during a game, meaning you have greater chances at predicting the remaining cards as the game progresses. Shallow penetration is bad for the player for the opposite reason. If the marker card is put only halfway into the stack, the odds of predicting what will be drawn next is greatly reduced. Taking it a step further, by playing single and double deck games, you can eliminate this scenario almost entirely as all the cards are usually dealt out.
Going back to the chart, you can see that being able to double
on only 10 and 11 has a negative effect for the player, while
being able to double on 3 or more cards and doubling after splits
has a positive effect. Look for games where the dealer stand on
all 17s - they're pretty common in the United States. Avoid games
where the dealer does not take a second card until after the players
are done. While surrender has a positive effect for players, it
is rarely found these days, and even more rarely utilized properly.
For more information on surrender, see our Blackjack FAQ. Lastly,
try to find games where you are allowed to resplit aces. Most
games give you but a single card on each Ace when you split them,
and do not allow resplitting of Aces. If you get an Ace on top
of your split Ace, naturally you would want to split again, rather
than stand on a 12, so this rule can have a big impact on player
odds.
Summary
Blackjack is a fun and exciting game with players largely because
it is beatable. Become a skilled player and the odds will shift
into your favor, giving you a positive expectation of winning.
This means that over time, playing Blackjack will result in you
gaining money instead of losing it. Understanding basic strategy
and counting techniques are integral to your success, but also
having good betting strategy and knowing how rules impact the
odds is equally important. Little things like these help players.
Be sure to at least learn basic strategy, and then you will probably
be better than 80% of all blackjack players worldwide. All it
takes is a little practice.
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